Unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II and their effect on fertility: A life cycle perspective
Kesternich,Iris Siflinger,Bettina Smith,James P. Steckenleiter,Carina
Kesternich,Iris
Siflinger,Bettina
Smith,James P.
Steckenleiter,Carina
Abstract
This paper analyzes the effects of permanently unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II on fertility outcomes over the life cycle. Using Census records linked with individual biography data, our analysis confirms the commonly found short-term pattern of decreased fertility rates due to a stark imbalance of the sex ratio. Yet, the long-term effects of such an imbalance crucially depend on when in the life cycle fertility is evaluated. We find that female cohorts with low sex ratios have fewer children at younger ages and a larger fraction remains childless. While childlessness remains higher throughout their life cycle, mothers from affected cohorts catch up and even overcompensate at later ages with respect to the number of children. Our preferred reading of this result is that with low sex ratios women select themselves into late motherhood according to their fertility preferences. This interpretation is consistent with the finding that women from affected cohorts expand their childbearing period and accept lower quality matches in the marriage market. Our findings have important implications for understanding the long-term consequences of large population shocks.
Description
Funding Information: We are grateful to Joshua Angrist, Joseph Zweimueller, Michael Lechner and to participants at seminars at St. Gallen, Passau, Essen, Lausanne, Nuremberg, Mainz and at the Labor Workshop in Zams. We would like to thank Ferdinand Kramer for providing expertise on the historical background and employees from various statistical offices in Germany for their assistance in collecting the historical data. We are grateful to Bernhard Schimpl-Neimanns from the German Microdata Lab for providing valuable insights and information on the 1970 Census. This paper uses data from a series of German Censuses and the GSOEP. The research was funded by a grant from the National Institute on Aging ( R37-AG025529 ) to James Smith. Iris Kesternich is grateful to funding from KU Leuven research funds. Bettina Siflinger acknowledges financial support from the German Science Foundation (DFG) through CRC 884. Carina Steckenleiter is grateful for funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF) (SNF 100018E-161598).
Date
2020-11
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Research Projects
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Keywords
Fertility, Life cycle, Marriage, Sex ratio, World War II
Citation
Kesternich, I, Siflinger, B, Smith, J P & Steckenleiter, C 2020, 'Unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II and their effect on fertility : A life cycle perspective', European Economic Review, vol. 130, 103581. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103581