Forecasting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is inherently ambiguous given the current state of virus research
Koenen,Melissa Balvert,Marleen Brekelmans,Ruud Fleuren,H.A. Stienen,Valentijn Wagenaar,J.C.
Koenen,Melissa
Balvert,Marleen
Brekelmans,Ruud
Fleuren,H.A.
Stienen,Valentijn
Wagenaar,J.C.
Abstract
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic many researchers and health advisory institutions have focused on virus spread prediction through epidemiological models. Such models rely on virus- and disease characteristics of which most are uncertain or even unknown for SARS-CoV-2. This study addresses the validity of various assumptions using an epidemiological simulation model. The contributions of this work are twofold. First, we show that multiple scenarios all lead to realistic numbers of deaths and ICU admissions, two observable and verifiable metrics. Second, we test the sensitivity of estimates for the number of infected and immune individuals, and show that these vary strongly between scenarios. Note that the amount of variation measured in this study is merely a lower bound: epidemiological modeling contains uncertainty on more parameters than the four in this study, and including those as well would lead to an even larger set of possible scenarios. As the level of infection and immunity among the population are particularly important for policy makers, further research on virus and disease progression characteristics is essential. Until that time, epidemiological modeling studies cannot give conclusive results and should come with a careful analysis of several scenarios on virus- and disease characteristics.
Description
Date
2021-03
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Keywords
COVID-19/epidemiology, Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data, Forecasting/methods, Humans, Models, Statistical, Pandemics, SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
Citation
Koenen, M, Balvert, M, Brekelmans, R, Fleuren, H A, Stienen, V & Wagenaar, J C 2021, 'Forecasting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is inherently ambiguous given the current state of virus research', PLOS ONE, vol. 16, no. 3 March, e0245519. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245519
License
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess