Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results
Crowdsourcing Hypothesis Tests Collaboration Jaeger,B.
Crowdsourcing Hypothesis Tests Collaboration
Jaeger,B.
Abstract
To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from 2 separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete 1 version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: Materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for 4 of 5 hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to + 0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for 2 hypotheses and a lack of support for 3 hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, whereas considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.
Description
Date
2020
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Research Projects
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Journal Issue
Keywords
1ST OFFERS, ATTITUDES, CONCEPTUAL REPLICATIONS, CONSEQUENCES, IMPLICIT, INDIVIDUAL-DIFFERENCES, METAANALYSIS, REPLICABILITY, SCIENCE, SOCIAL-PSYCHOLOGY, conceptual replications, crowdsourcing, forecasting, research robustness, scientific transparency
Citation
Crowdsourcing Hypothesis Tests Collaboration & Jaeger, B 2020, 'Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests : Making transparent how design choices shape research results', Psychological Bulletin, vol. 146, no. 5, pp. 451-479. https://doi.org/10.1037/bul0000220