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Grazing the Commons: Global Carbon Emissions Forever?
Melenberg,B. Vollebergh,H.R.J. Dijkgraaf,E.
Melenberg,B.
Vollebergh,H.R.J.
Dijkgraaf,E.
Abstract
This paper presents the results from our investigation of the per-capita, long- term relation between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for the world, obtained with the use of a new, exible estimator. Consistent with simple economic growth models, we find that regional, population-weighted per- capita emissions systematically increase with income (scale effect) and usually de- cline over time (composition and technology effect). Both our in-sample results and out-of-sample scenarios indicate that this negative time effect is unlikely to compen- sate for the upward-income effect at a global level, in the near future. In particular, even if China's specialization in carbon-intensive industrial sectors would come to a halt, recent trends outside China make a reversal of the overall global trend very unlikely.
Description
Date
2011
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Publisher
Finance
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2011-020.pdf
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Keywords
CO2 Emissions, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Panel Data, (Semi)parametric Estimation, C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models, O50 - General, Q40 - General
Citation
Melenberg, B, Vollebergh, H R J & Dijkgraaf, E 2011 'Grazing the Commons : Global Carbon Emissions Forever?' CentER Discussion Paper, vol. 2011-020, Finance, Tilburg.
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info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess