Using machine learning to predict mental healthcare consumption in non-affective psychosis
Kwakernaak,S. van Mens,K. Cahn,W. Janssen,Richard
Kwakernaak,S.
van Mens,K.
Cahn,W.
Janssen,Richard
Abstract
Objective: The main goal of the study was to predict individual patients' future mental healthcare consumption, and thereby enhancing the design of an efficient demand-oriented mental healthcare system by focusing on a patient population associated with intensive mental healthcare consumption. Factors that affect the mental healthcare consumption of service users with non-affective psychosis were identified, and subsequently used in a prognostic model to predict future healthcare consumption. Method: This study was a secondary analysis of an existing dataset from the GROUP study. Based on mental healthcare consumption, patients with non-affective psychosis were divided into two groups: low (N = 579) and high (N = 488) intensive mental healthcare consumers. Three different techniques from the field of machine learning were applied on crosssectional data to identify risk factors: logistic regression, classification tree and a random forest. Subsequently, the same techniques were applied longitudinally in order to predict future healthcare consumption. Results: Identified variables that affected healthcare consumption were the number of psychotic episodes, paid employment, engagement in social activities, previous healthcare consumption, and met needs. Analyses showed that the random forest method is best suited to model risk factors, and that these relations predict future healthcare consumption (AUC 0.71, PPV 0.65). Conclusions: Machine learning techniques provide valuable information for identifying risk factors in psychosis. They may thus help clinicians optimize allocation of mental healthcare resources by predicting future healthcare consumption.
Description
Date
2020
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Keywords
ANTIPSYCHOTIC MEDICATION, COGNITIVE-BEHAVIORAL THERAPY, FAMILY INTERVENTION, FOLLOW-UP, HIGH-RISK, HOSPITALIZATION, SCHIZOPHRENIA, SERVICE USE, SUBSTANCE USE, UNTREATED PSYCHOSIS
Citation
Kwakernaak, S, van Mens, K, Cahn, W & Janssen, R 2020, 'Using machine learning to predict mental healthcare consumption in non-affective psychosis', Schizophrenia Research, vol. 218, no. 4, pp. 166-172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.schres.2020.01.008
License
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess