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Priced to Perfection? Subjective Expectations in Financial Markets

Vo,Michael
Abstract
The three essays collected in this PhD thesis study the dynamics of subjective expectations and the informational role of the options market in empirical asset pricing. The first essay examines subjective dividend growth expectations, documenting that investors overreact to cash-flow news; this leads to predictable forecast errors that explain a significant portion of price-dividend variation. The second essay explores variance expectations, finding that investors overreact to firm-specific variance shocks while underreacting to systematic ones, a distortion that can be exploited by trading strategies. The third essay investigates the options market’s response to securities class action lawsuits, revealing that traders anticipate filings and that implied volatility predicts both case resolutions and settlement amounts.
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CentER Dissertation Series Volume: 788
Date
2026
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CentER
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Tilburg University Research Output Collection
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Vo, M 2026, 'Priced to Perfection? Subjective Expectations in Financial Markets', Doctor of Philosophy, Tilburg University, Tilburg. https://doi.org/10.26116/tisem.56615131
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14602/105495
License
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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